Is "Unprecedented" the new normal?

In July, Texas experienced the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record. California wildfires now routinely break intensity and scale records. The average number of annual billion-dollar disasters has surged from 8.5 (1980-2023) to 20.4 for just the past five years. This past decade has seen the top 10 of the all-time hottest years on record, with 2024 poised to set new records.

Yet, these extreme conditions are spreading beyond historically vulnerable areas. Climate change is reshaping the interactions between human and natural systems; rising global temperatures are increasing the frequency, severity, and unpredictability of natural events, extending their reach to previously unaffected regions. This shift has significant implications.

Economic and Social Burdens

Changing environmental conditions can lead to a myriad of pressures: rising energy costs through increased air conditioning or heating costs, an extreme rise in heat which can increase the risk of diseases, and a growing and variable frequency of damage-causing storms, among others. These factors strain public health, services, and the economy, further exacerbating existing socio-economic challenges. Rising insurance rates reflect the growing economic burden of potential disasters, while weak public infrastructure leaves communities vulnerable. The EPA highlights the adverse effects of climate change, such as how increased flooding, worsened air quality, and extreme temperatures weaken community health and security.

Vulnerable populations are disproportionately affected by climate change. FEMA’s Risk Index shows that climate vulnerability correlates with social instability, reducing community resilience. However, without adequate preparation, communities will continue to struggle to recover from natural events, further marginalizing the already-vulnerable areas.

Communities are Ill-Equipped

Current infrastructures are outdated; most structure-types in the US are older than 50 years on average. The surge in natural events over the past 30 years leaves many communities ill-equipped to handle modern-scale disasters. The disconnect between the natural and human environment is what will turn future extreme events into more costly disasters. For example, communities with older buildings may not be structurally equipped to undergo an earthquake. Similarly, a town with outdated pipes or drainage could suffer greater during a time of unprecedented flooding compared to one in a traditional flood-zone. As seen recently, the Midwest is still suffering from “unprecedented” flooding from this past June as old dams could not support the rainfall.

Moving Forward

Regional municipalities need to update their social and physical infrastructure to handle the increasing severity and randomness of natural events. American-built environments were created a long time ago, primarily modeled on a static view of the environment. Understanding that climate change is creating an increasingly dynamic natural landscape has to be the first step for planning for future development. Embracing this perspective will help communities create systems that are not only better equipped to face natural volatility but also more resilient and adaptable in the face of ongoing climate challenges. Smart community planners are already integrating climate considerations into all aspects of development and planning. This ensures that our communities are prepared for the realities of a changing world.

However, these efforts should not be our only course of action. Our environmental impact should still be minimized. While modernizing infrastructure is crucial, it must be coupled with efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate environmental damage. This dual approach—enhancing resilience while addressing the root causes of climate change—ensures a more sustainable and effective response to the evolving challenges. Embracing this comprehensive strategy will help communities navigate the complexities of a changing world and safeguard future generations.